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Dangling by a Thread: How Sharp are the Chinese Scissors?

Year: 2006
Author: Kaplinsky, Raphael

China's growth spurt began in the late 1970s. But it was only in second half of the 1990s that its impact on the global economy began to be felt. China's exportdrive was not unique by East Asian standards (Figure 1.1). However, its size China has more than 20 percent of the global population) means that it is having a very significant impact on many other economies, including on low income economies in SSA. Its economy has grown at a compound rate of more than nine percent p.a. since 1979 and if this is sustained, it will be second in size to the US by 2018. Its trade impact is especially important, since its trade-GDP ratio is 70 percent (relatively high by comparison with other developing countries). In 2004, China was the world's third largest exporter, accounting for around 10 percent of the world's exports. The Organisation for Economic Development (OECD) estimates that China will be the leading global exporter by 2010.

Publication file: prism_dangling_ by_a_thread.pdf